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How High Oil Prices Could Affect Us
By Daniel G. Jennings
Even the media is ignoring it, average Americans are probably wondering how rising oil prices will affect their lives and society at large.
The first people who will feel the pinch of high oil prices will be the group of Americans who can least afford it: the rural poor. With the disappearance of traditional small town businesses and the rural communities they support rural residents are forced to drive long distances in order to do everyday things like shop and go to the doctor. It’s not uncommon for rural residents to drive seventy miles to get to Wal-Mart.
If gas prices keep going up, rural poor and working class will have no choice but to move into the cities. This of course will deprive small towns of taxpayers, workers in businesses and other people they need to survive. The first casualty of the Great Gas Shortage will be small town life, many small towns will die out and become ghost towns because of this catastrophe.
Many cities and suburban areas will experience social disruption because of an influx of poor rural whites, poor rural blacks, poor rural Hispanics and poor rural Native Americans. I’m sure a lot of yuppies will be shocked to see poor whites living in their local housing project or ghetto. There will am I sure be turf wars between urban gangs and new coming gangs of poor white kids from the country side. Since the country boys are probably better with guns than the city boys there could be some interesting drug turf wars over the next few years.
Rural areas will get hit by a double whammy average people won’t be able to afford to live there because of high fuel prices while high fuel prices hurt agriculture. The looser will be family farms, corporate farmers will be able to afford the high fuel prices and absorb the cost of converting to new energy sources, family farmers won’t. The traditional American rural lifestyle based on family agriculture could be the greatest casualty of the fuel shortage.
In the cities and suburbs the thing average people will notice first and most will be the prices. The price of virtually everything will go up because all products are delivered by trucks which run on diesel fuel. Since American trains are pulled by diesel locomotives there will be little saving using rail transport. Food costs will go up because farming which relies upon diesel powered tractors will be more expensive as will transport. Then there’s plastic virtually everything we use these days cars, phones, computers, containers is made from plastic much of which is made from oil those prices will go up true. Yes, we can switch to plastics made from something like soy but that will cost money and take years.
There will be other casualties Americans will have to give up a lot of their recreation, boats, motorcycles, ATVs, snow mobiles run on gasoline. A lot of people will give these things up and grandma and grandpa will probably have to park their RV. The great American vacation will be affected, instead of going to the lake or the cabin, Americans will instead end up going to the beach or the movies.
With flying more expensive many people will go back to trains or buses. Many people may not end up taking a vacation for years until they get done building the high speed rail lines. Las Vegas Casinos and Orlando theme parks may get shuttered for a few years. As will Colorado ski areas, they’ll reopen when the high speed train service starts up but they won’t be the same.
Closer to home, fuel prices will greatly affect real estate prices. A lot of pricey outlying homes, second homes, ski condos and rural ranches will suddenly become worthless. Many expensive homes will be worthless because they aren’t in walking distance of the bus stop or the light rail line. On the flip side a lot of formerly slum housing in inner cities and older suburbs is going to be worth a lot of money. Formerly poor inner city areas will see intense disruption as the upper and middle classes pour in and displace the poor. This is already happening in parts of New York like Brooklyn and Harlem. In the future we could see a reversal of the present urban living pattern, the poor living far out in formerly middle class suburbs, the upper and middle class living downtown in former slums.
So how should average people prepare for the gas shortage? Well, first choose your housing carefully if you’re living in a distant suburb or small town it’s a good time to move out. Look around for a home in a smaller city, a traditional main street town, a traditional suburb or downtown area. Then carefully evaluate it, if need be can you walk to things like the grocery store, the discount store, the clothing store etc. Can you walk to recreational activities like movies or the park. Can your kids walk to school and can you walk to things like church if need be. Is there transit probably bus service nearby and how good is the transit will it take you where you want to go. In other words can the bus get you to work and back if need be? Take it from an experienced transit rider there’s only way to evaluate transit service and that’s to actually ride it. Don’t believe the claims of the real estate agent or the transit agency’s web site, get on the bus and take a ride.
Beyond that investing in a lower gas mileage car would be probably be a wise move. It might not be a bad idea to buy a decent bicycle if you like them. A motorcycle or motor scooter might also be a wise investment.
Talking your parents and other older residents into moving into the city would be a wise move at this juncture. Elderly people who can’t walk far will be especially hard hit many of them drive bigger older cars that get lousy gas mileage. Such individuals should be moved into senior apartment complexes or houses in areas with good bus service. Frail elderly people will need somebody younger and stronger to protect them. Especially if lots of young hoodlums are roaming around with guns looking for gas.
The worst case scenario would be the Road Warrior scenario. Remember the first Mad Max movie the highways are full of vicious thugs seeking gasoline at all costs. This being America a lot of them will have guns but no gasoline so they’re going to use the guns to get gas. The authorities faced with such a situation will have little choice but to declare martial law.
My guess is most people will survive the Great Oil Shortage but they won’t be very comfortable in their survival.