The Conservative Coalition Unravels

The big story of the 2008 presidential election is the unraveling of the great Conservative Coalition that has dominated American politics since Ronald Reagan’s day.
Reagan, like his idol Franklin D. Roosevelt, was a political genius who put together a coalition of disparate elements that dominated American politics for a generation. Like all good coalitions, Reagan’s coalition was a compromise, a compromise being an agreement that nobody likes but every accepts because it achieves a common good. The Reagan compromise was to get religious conservatives, social conservatives, Anti-Communists, libertarians and moderate Republicans to put aside their differences and win elections.
The Reagan coalition has broken down because the Reagan compromise has broken down. Reagan convinced social and religious conservatives not to talk about economic issues, moderates to bite their tongues when foreign policy was discussed and Libertarians and Cold War Anti Communists not to talk about social issues. Much of the Reagan compromise was based on the threat of Communism and the widely held belief in 1970s and 80s American that the Soviet Union was somehow winning the Cold War. The members of the Coalition were so afraid of Communism that they put aside their differences to fight it. Religious conservatives were afraid of Godless Communism, libertarians of Soviet socialism and traditional pro business Republicans were afraid to buck the anti communist trend because of patriotism.
Today the Reagan coalition like FDR’s coalition is completely broken because of changing times. Two major Republican presidential candidates, John McCain and Mike Huckabee are viciously attacking the President’s foreign policy in language reminiscent of the Democrats. A religious conservative, Mike Huckabee, is advancing the idea that government should help the poor and intervene in the economy, entirely Biblical courses of action that are undoubtedly making Barry Goldwater spin in his grave. A moderate law and order Republican, Rudi Guiliani is trying to win votes by staking out middle of the road positions on social issues like Abortion and gay rights. John McCain is doing something even more loathsome to social conservatives , he’s simply ignoring social issues entirely. Every time somebody mentions gay rights McCain starts ranting about the war on terror and his time in the Hanoi Hilton. An insurgent libertarian, Ron Paul is trying to sabotage the party establishment. A Southern good old boy, Fred Thompson is running simply because the Republicans need a Southern good old boy in the race and so on.
For the first time since 1980 there is no conservative coalition, the Republicans like the Democrats are at each others throats. Neocons with visions of American Empire in their heads are attacking Bible thumpers. Bible thumpers are railing against liberal Republicans who want to return to the days of Herbert Hoover. Liberal Republicans are railing against neo cons and Bible thumpers. Paleocons have deserted the party entirely because Ron Paul is too liberal for their tastes. If Pat Buchanan doesn’t run in 2008 they won’t vote.
This means that the Republicans for the first time since 1912 when Teddy Roosevelt’s Bull Moose insurgency split the party are disunited. Even in the darkest days of the Depression/World War II FDR ascendancy Republicans presented a united front. Now the Republicans are as disorganized and as confused as the Democrats. The average Republican doesn’t know who his candidate is or what the party platform is. He tunes in Rush Limbaugh and finds that Rush is as confused as he is.
This gives Democrats a leg up they’re used to a disorganized party with no real leadership.
They’ll rally around a second rate figure like Bill Clinton because he can win office. Republicans don’t know what to do there is no leader no heir to Reagan on the horizon only a collection of second rate hacks with some money and a little street cred. Democrats are used to this situation they’ll rally around a guy like Slick Willie Clinton and his Fembot of a wife (even though they’d never invite him to their homes the stereo might not be there after he leaves for the evening) because he can deliver elections. It’s been so long since they had a real candidate they’ll take what they can get. Republicans remember Reagan survey the presidential field and throw up. Democrats yawn and say he or she can win the election so vote for that person.
The Republicans have an interesting choice before them, either find some way to resurrect the Reagan coalition (which might be impossible without Reagan) or swallow their pride and vote for whatever Republican can out shyster the Democrats. Either way it’s going to be a sickening choice that will lead to more government and higher taxes.