Why We Haven’t Caught Bin Laden and How To Catch Him
With the sixth anniversary of September 11 just past Americans are asking why we haven’t caught Osama Bin Laden and more importantly how do we catch him?
The US hasn’t caught Bin Laden because our military, our intelligence community, our diplomatic service and our whole system of government simply aren’t set up to deal with foes like Al Qaeda. Our military, with the exception of a few elite special services units, is set up to fight large scale wars against well organized and heavily armed enemies like the Communists. Our intelligence services are set up to spy on highly-centralized and heavily-bureaucratic dictatorships like the Soviet Union and our diplomatic service to conduct relations with traditional nation states.
None of the arms of our governments was set up to deal with an enemy like Bin Laden or an organization like Al Qaeda. Al Qaeda is not a government, it doesn’t have a capitol, it doesn’t control any territory or have an organized military force.
When the US invaded and occupied Afghanistan Bin Laden and Company, simply packed up and moved to Northern Pakistan. If we invade Northern Pakistan, as that military genius Barrack Obama demands, Bin Laden will move elsewhere.
Obviously there is no way for traditional military forces which are set up to invade nations and occupy territory to deal with such a foe. Nor is it easy for intelligence agencies designed to spy on governments to gather intelligence about a loosely organized network of fanatics who hide among the general population. Diplomats who are used to negotiating with leaders who live in palaces aren’t going to be of much use negotiating with foes who hide in back alleys.
To make matters worse, our political leaders simply aren’t interested in reforming our national government to deal with the new reality. Reforming the military and the intelligence community would threaten the vast military industrial complex which is a huge source of profits for business and campaign contributions for politicians. Nor does the State Department want to admit that it and its brand of diplomacy are dinosaurs incapable of dealing with the new political situation.
With a government that is unwilling to change with the times, it is easy to see how a new school enemy like Bin Laden can outwit and evade us. So we have to ask how do we catch Bin Laden?
The answer is easy: turn his own tactics against him by fighting the kind of war Bin Laden fights. Bin Laden fights a war in the shadows using his wits and his money to organize and fund proxies that fight his battles for him.
There is no reason why the United States couldn’t fight such a war against Al Qaeda and win. We’ve done so in the past and won big by employing such tactics.
During the Cold War the US suffered a humiliating setback in Vietnam when it resorted to overwhelming military force. US forces were able to defeat the Communist guerillas in the field but couldn’t wipe them out completely. When American forces pulled out of Vietnam, the Communists simply came back and won the war.
When the US switched tactics in the Cold War, largely under Reagan, and waged war through proxies: anti-Communist guerrilla forces, friendly governments and front groups we won. In Afghanistan US allies were able to inflict humiliating losses on the mighty Red Army and in Latin America we stopped the Communist advance dead in its tracks. By 1991, the Soviet Union was so battered by this covert warfare and its own weakness it collapsed.
The nation that defeated the Soviet Union at its own game should be able to easily dispense with someone like Bin Laden. Instead of deploying massive military forces to Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan we should be deploying our money and our covert operations spooks. It shouldn’t be too hard to hire local warlords and tribesmen to wage war on our enemies in those places.
We could control Afghanistan through local warlords and perhaps make a strategic alliance with the opium growers. We could control Iraq through Shiite and Sunni militias.
Most importantly we could get Bin Laden by making deals with the tribal leaders who are harboring him in North Pakistan. It shouldn’t be too hard for the US to bypass the Pakistani government and talk directly with the tribal leaders. I imagine many of them will be interested in listening to us, especially if we spread a lot of cash around there. Then we can work up a face saving deal in which the tribes can surrender Bin Laden and liquidate the Al Qaeda operatives in the area perhaps in a mock military operation.
Unfortunately this isn’t going to happen anytime soon because it would take creative out of the box thinking on the part of our leaders. That would be probably be far too much to ask for in today’s world.
The US hasn’t caught Bin Laden because our military, our intelligence community, our diplomatic service and our whole system of government simply aren’t set up to deal with foes like Al Qaeda. Our military, with the exception of a few elite special services units, is set up to fight large scale wars against well organized and heavily armed enemies like the Communists. Our intelligence services are set up to spy on highly-centralized and heavily-bureaucratic dictatorships like the Soviet Union and our diplomatic service to conduct relations with traditional nation states.
None of the arms of our governments was set up to deal with an enemy like Bin Laden or an organization like Al Qaeda. Al Qaeda is not a government, it doesn’t have a capitol, it doesn’t control any territory or have an organized military force.
When the US invaded and occupied Afghanistan Bin Laden and Company, simply packed up and moved to Northern Pakistan. If we invade Northern Pakistan, as that military genius Barrack Obama demands, Bin Laden will move elsewhere.
Obviously there is no way for traditional military forces which are set up to invade nations and occupy territory to deal with such a foe. Nor is it easy for intelligence agencies designed to spy on governments to gather intelligence about a loosely organized network of fanatics who hide among the general population. Diplomats who are used to negotiating with leaders who live in palaces aren’t going to be of much use negotiating with foes who hide in back alleys.
To make matters worse, our political leaders simply aren’t interested in reforming our national government to deal with the new reality. Reforming the military and the intelligence community would threaten the vast military industrial complex which is a huge source of profits for business and campaign contributions for politicians. Nor does the State Department want to admit that it and its brand of diplomacy are dinosaurs incapable of dealing with the new political situation.
With a government that is unwilling to change with the times, it is easy to see how a new school enemy like Bin Laden can outwit and evade us. So we have to ask how do we catch Bin Laden?
The answer is easy: turn his own tactics against him by fighting the kind of war Bin Laden fights. Bin Laden fights a war in the shadows using his wits and his money to organize and fund proxies that fight his battles for him.
There is no reason why the United States couldn’t fight such a war against Al Qaeda and win. We’ve done so in the past and won big by employing such tactics.
During the Cold War the US suffered a humiliating setback in Vietnam when it resorted to overwhelming military force. US forces were able to defeat the Communist guerillas in the field but couldn’t wipe them out completely. When American forces pulled out of Vietnam, the Communists simply came back and won the war.
When the US switched tactics in the Cold War, largely under Reagan, and waged war through proxies: anti-Communist guerrilla forces, friendly governments and front groups we won. In Afghanistan US allies were able to inflict humiliating losses on the mighty Red Army and in Latin America we stopped the Communist advance dead in its tracks. By 1991, the Soviet Union was so battered by this covert warfare and its own weakness it collapsed.
The nation that defeated the Soviet Union at its own game should be able to easily dispense with someone like Bin Laden. Instead of deploying massive military forces to Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan we should be deploying our money and our covert operations spooks. It shouldn’t be too hard to hire local warlords and tribesmen to wage war on our enemies in those places.
We could control Afghanistan through local warlords and perhaps make a strategic alliance with the opium growers. We could control Iraq through Shiite and Sunni militias.
Most importantly we could get Bin Laden by making deals with the tribal leaders who are harboring him in North Pakistan. It shouldn’t be too hard for the US to bypass the Pakistani government and talk directly with the tribal leaders. I imagine many of them will be interested in listening to us, especially if we spread a lot of cash around there. Then we can work up a face saving deal in which the tribes can surrender Bin Laden and liquidate the Al Qaeda operatives in the area perhaps in a mock military operation.
Unfortunately this isn’t going to happen anytime soon because it would take creative out of the box thinking on the part of our leaders. That would be probably be far too much to ask for in today’s world.
posted by great one at 9:14 AM
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