Presidential Politics
Like the vast majority of Americans I think the 2008 presidential race is starting far too early so I’ve held off commenting on it. Still the media is hyping it up so I suppose we have to pay attention to this and comment upon it.
The major issue in the election right now is the American involvement in the Iraq War which will probably be over by election time. This is bad news for the Democrats because the Iraq War is the only popular issue they have. The public hates the war and is angry at President Bush for getting involved in. Take the war off the table and the public has no real reason to hate Bush or the Republicans.
Beyond the war the Democrats have no marketable issue, abortion, gun control, healthcare they’ve tried those they have no real appeal. The Republicans have many popular issues family values, terrorism, and the American people trust them they don’t trust the Democrats.
There are two other big issues that the public cares about but the Democrats won’t raise: Trade and Immigration. Trade and immigration certainly stir the public’s passions on a level rivaling the Iraq War but taking a stand against these issues will offend powerful constituencies.
Any stand against immigration risks angering Hispanic voters and their apologists in the media who will see it as racist. A stand against immigration also risks offending large corporate donors that depend on cheap immigrant labor and upper middle class voters whose lifestyle is based on the services provided by immigrants illegal and legal.
A stand against free trade would be popular with the unions and a large portion of the population especially older voters. Opposition to free trade would not be popular with large corporations or with the upper middle class which profits from the modern economy. There is also a strong possibility of a backlash from the working class which likes all of the cheap goods free trade provides.
The Democrats won’t touch either free trade or immigration with a ten foot pole so all they have is opposition to the war and Bush. This won’t be of much help in the 2008 presidential election because they won’t be running against Bush. The Republican will be free to oppose Bush and the war.
The Democrats only won Congress in 2006 because a large percentage of conservative and moderate red state voters were upset with Bush and the war. An anti war Republican would win those voters back and the White House.
My prediction is this 2008 will be an unstable year that will favor the Republicans the Republicans are better organized than the Democrats and their base is bigger. The Republicans only lack one thing a popular presidential candidate and that isn’t necessarily needed the Democrats lacked one in 1992 and won, the Republicans lacked one in 2000 and won.
The Democrats do have two potentially popular presidential candidates on their side. Hillary Clinton brings the appeal of her sex and her reputation as suffering and dutiful wife and mother as well as her connection to a popular ex president. Barrack Obama brings glamour, novelty, charisma and a sense of optimism reminiscent of Ronald Reagan.
The odds are against both of these candidates both are incumbent US Senators no US Senator has been elected president since Kennedy in 1960 and he barely won. Hillary is from the Northeast and Obama from Illinois (okay Hawaii originally). Every president elected since 1964 has come either from the West or the South.
Both are also very liberal and very much to the left of the majority but they do represent the Democratic Party or at least two stereotypical voters. The Hillary voter is a middle aged working class woman who shops at Wal-Mart and watches Oprah Winfrey. The Obama voter is a middle aged, middle class professional with a college degree who shops at Whole Foods and goes to Michael Moore documentaries.
The Hillary voter is the majority of the Democratic base but the Obama voter is more influential. The Whole Foods constituency is what elected the present Democratic congress and could elect the next Democratic president. The Whole Foods constituency will turn out and vote in the Democratic Primaries, the Wal-Mart constituency doesn’t know what a primary is.
The success of Obama proves that there is a large portion of the Democratic base that is unhappy or at least uncomfortable with Hillary. Mostly it is the hard core leftists who doubt Hillary’s commitment to the cause. A great many of them view Hillary and her husband as corporate shills who are no better than George W. Bush.
Obama appeals to them as that long awaited political savior the Democratic or left wing Reagan. Reagan was that rare political figure the ideologue who could energize and rally the faithful without scaring off the moderate majority. Most ideologues like Newt Gingrich and Howard Dean succeed only in scaring off the average voter. The characteristics that appeal to the ideologically faithful usually succeed in scaring off the average voter.
The question is will Obama like Reagan appeal to the average voter or not. That’s hard to say, he seems aloof and lacks the common touch. Much of Reagan’s appeal was his ability to speak to common people where they live something that George W. Bush and Bill Clinton also seem to do. Hillary also seems to lack the common touch but she does seem able to fake it. Both Obama and Hillary could sabotage their chances with their clumsy and silly efforts to effect the common touch.
The Republicans lack a popular candidate beyond Rudi Gulliani who is too liberal to win the primaries. Their candidates are a collection of has bins and nonentities but there is one intriguing possibility Fred Thompson he’s popular and charming and has the common touch. Still it will be an uphill battle for Thompson is an unknown and his style and manner which will endure him to the American people won’t go over well with the media.
My prediction: the Democrats will probably win the White House next year but they will have a battle to hold onto Congress. In November 2008 we’re liable to wake up with a Republican Congress and a Democratic President. The situation is that unstable and unpredictable neither party has a real majority or popular appeal.
Of course things could change by election time because it’s too far away.
The major issue in the election right now is the American involvement in the Iraq War which will probably be over by election time. This is bad news for the Democrats because the Iraq War is the only popular issue they have. The public hates the war and is angry at President Bush for getting involved in. Take the war off the table and the public has no real reason to hate Bush or the Republicans.
Beyond the war the Democrats have no marketable issue, abortion, gun control, healthcare they’ve tried those they have no real appeal. The Republicans have many popular issues family values, terrorism, and the American people trust them they don’t trust the Democrats.
There are two other big issues that the public cares about but the Democrats won’t raise: Trade and Immigration. Trade and immigration certainly stir the public’s passions on a level rivaling the Iraq War but taking a stand against these issues will offend powerful constituencies.
Any stand against immigration risks angering Hispanic voters and their apologists in the media who will see it as racist. A stand against immigration also risks offending large corporate donors that depend on cheap immigrant labor and upper middle class voters whose lifestyle is based on the services provided by immigrants illegal and legal.
A stand against free trade would be popular with the unions and a large portion of the population especially older voters. Opposition to free trade would not be popular with large corporations or with the upper middle class which profits from the modern economy. There is also a strong possibility of a backlash from the working class which likes all of the cheap goods free trade provides.
The Democrats won’t touch either free trade or immigration with a ten foot pole so all they have is opposition to the war and Bush. This won’t be of much help in the 2008 presidential election because they won’t be running against Bush. The Republican will be free to oppose Bush and the war.
The Democrats only won Congress in 2006 because a large percentage of conservative and moderate red state voters were upset with Bush and the war. An anti war Republican would win those voters back and the White House.
My prediction is this 2008 will be an unstable year that will favor the Republicans the Republicans are better organized than the Democrats and their base is bigger. The Republicans only lack one thing a popular presidential candidate and that isn’t necessarily needed the Democrats lacked one in 1992 and won, the Republicans lacked one in 2000 and won.
The Democrats do have two potentially popular presidential candidates on their side. Hillary Clinton brings the appeal of her sex and her reputation as suffering and dutiful wife and mother as well as her connection to a popular ex president. Barrack Obama brings glamour, novelty, charisma and a sense of optimism reminiscent of Ronald Reagan.
The odds are against both of these candidates both are incumbent US Senators no US Senator has been elected president since Kennedy in 1960 and he barely won. Hillary is from the Northeast and Obama from Illinois (okay Hawaii originally). Every president elected since 1964 has come either from the West or the South.
Both are also very liberal and very much to the left of the majority but they do represent the Democratic Party or at least two stereotypical voters. The Hillary voter is a middle aged working class woman who shops at Wal-Mart and watches Oprah Winfrey. The Obama voter is a middle aged, middle class professional with a college degree who shops at Whole Foods and goes to Michael Moore documentaries.
The Hillary voter is the majority of the Democratic base but the Obama voter is more influential. The Whole Foods constituency is what elected the present Democratic congress and could elect the next Democratic president. The Whole Foods constituency will turn out and vote in the Democratic Primaries, the Wal-Mart constituency doesn’t know what a primary is.
The success of Obama proves that there is a large portion of the Democratic base that is unhappy or at least uncomfortable with Hillary. Mostly it is the hard core leftists who doubt Hillary’s commitment to the cause. A great many of them view Hillary and her husband as corporate shills who are no better than George W. Bush.
Obama appeals to them as that long awaited political savior the Democratic or left wing Reagan. Reagan was that rare political figure the ideologue who could energize and rally the faithful without scaring off the moderate majority. Most ideologues like Newt Gingrich and Howard Dean succeed only in scaring off the average voter. The characteristics that appeal to the ideologically faithful usually succeed in scaring off the average voter.
The question is will Obama like Reagan appeal to the average voter or not. That’s hard to say, he seems aloof and lacks the common touch. Much of Reagan’s appeal was his ability to speak to common people where they live something that George W. Bush and Bill Clinton also seem to do. Hillary also seems to lack the common touch but she does seem able to fake it. Both Obama and Hillary could sabotage their chances with their clumsy and silly efforts to effect the common touch.
The Republicans lack a popular candidate beyond Rudi Gulliani who is too liberal to win the primaries. Their candidates are a collection of has bins and nonentities but there is one intriguing possibility Fred Thompson he’s popular and charming and has the common touch. Still it will be an uphill battle for Thompson is an unknown and his style and manner which will endure him to the American people won’t go over well with the media.
My prediction: the Democrats will probably win the White House next year but they will have a battle to hold onto Congress. In November 2008 we’re liable to wake up with a Republican Congress and a Democratic President. The situation is that unstable and unpredictable neither party has a real majority or popular appeal.
Of course things could change by election time because it’s too far away.
posted by great one at 8:54 PM
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