How To Catch Bin Laden
The way to catch Bin Laden is to completely change how we wage war and how we think about it.
The War on Terror is a Fourth Generational War, that is a war waged by entities other than the state such as terrorist groups like Al Qaeda. Recent history - such as our failure to catch Bin Laden - proves that the non-state entities have all the advantages in a Fourth Generational War.
In the past three years we have seen four major attempts by traditional national military forces to crush Islamic terrorist groups. Three of these efforts the US occupation of Iraq, the Pakistani attempt to push Al Qaeda and the Taliban out of the tribal areas near the Afghan border and the Israeli invasion of Lebanon to crush Al Qaeda were miserable failures. Despite massive deployments of men and weaponry and the extensive use of firepower the terrorist groups were still fighting and inflicting damage after the operations ended.
The only major success in the War on Terrorism has been Afghanistan where the Taliban was driven out and Al Qaeda’s base areas broken up. Even that battle has been only a partial success because Al Qaeda and its allies have been able to regroup and launch new attacks.
The US was successful in Afghanistan because it utilized very different tactics from those employed in the other conflicts. When it invaded Afghanistan in 2001, the United States used a combination of airpower, small special forces units and local fighters. This unorthodox mix succeeded and pointed to a new kind of war but the lesson wasn’t learned. The next time America went to war in Iraq, the war was fought by a traditional large scale army and the results have been disastrous.
To catch Bin Laden and break up the sorry remains of Al Qaeda once and for all we will have to wage a Fourth Generational War, a covert war. Instead of bombing the Tribal Areas of Pakistan where Bin Laden is believed to be or sending in large numbers of troops we’ll have to move quietly and secretly.
Send in small teams of covert operators who can easily blend into the local population. These would be men who can pass as Muslims and earn the respect of the local leaders. These Operators would have lots of cash and dispense it liberally, they would win over the tribal leaders by earning their respect and bribing them. Such tactics probably wouldn’t work on hardcore Taliban and Al Qaeda members but they would work on poor tribesmen trying to scratch out a living. It might take years to win over the tribal people of Pakistan but I imagine it can be done and we can get Bin Laden in the end.
The US has a long history of such covert warfare, especially in the Cold War where our covert operators outwitted and defeated Communism in places as diverse as Greece and El Salvador. Yet we have been reluctant to resort to such covert methods in the present conflict even though they are the perfect strategy for victory.
There are two reasons for this, first the massive military establishment has to justify its existence and the massive amounts of tax money it costs us. The cheap simple war in Afghanistan scared the generals and admirals in the Pentagon to death for it proved that much if not most of their war machine was obsolete. To this equation we can add all the people who profit from military spending such as defense contractors, politicians and lobbyists they want the gravy train to keep rolling. Similar concerns are at play in other countries such as Israel and Pakistan, Israeli and Pakistani generals also have to justify their defense spending.
Then there are the politicians who dislike covert warfare because there is no publicity and glory in them. There is no possibility of a photo opportunity on an aircraft carrier or a ceremony handing out medals to strapping young soldiers at the White House.
When covert operations succeed the public doesn’t hear about them and there is no opportunity for publicity. When covert operations go wrong political leaders take the heat especially from self righteous moralists. Every president wants to be FDR leading the troops to victory in World War II, no President wants to be Richard Nixon taking the fall.
With our leaders refusal to wage the kind of sensible covert war the present situation calls for, it is no wonder we haven’t caught Bin Laden.
The War on Terror is a Fourth Generational War, that is a war waged by entities other than the state such as terrorist groups like Al Qaeda. Recent history - such as our failure to catch Bin Laden - proves that the non-state entities have all the advantages in a Fourth Generational War.
In the past three years we have seen four major attempts by traditional national military forces to crush Islamic terrorist groups. Three of these efforts the US occupation of Iraq, the Pakistani attempt to push Al Qaeda and the Taliban out of the tribal areas near the Afghan border and the Israeli invasion of Lebanon to crush Al Qaeda were miserable failures. Despite massive deployments of men and weaponry and the extensive use of firepower the terrorist groups were still fighting and inflicting damage after the operations ended.
The only major success in the War on Terrorism has been Afghanistan where the Taliban was driven out and Al Qaeda’s base areas broken up. Even that battle has been only a partial success because Al Qaeda and its allies have been able to regroup and launch new attacks.
The US was successful in Afghanistan because it utilized very different tactics from those employed in the other conflicts. When it invaded Afghanistan in 2001, the United States used a combination of airpower, small special forces units and local fighters. This unorthodox mix succeeded and pointed to a new kind of war but the lesson wasn’t learned. The next time America went to war in Iraq, the war was fought by a traditional large scale army and the results have been disastrous.
To catch Bin Laden and break up the sorry remains of Al Qaeda once and for all we will have to wage a Fourth Generational War, a covert war. Instead of bombing the Tribal Areas of Pakistan where Bin Laden is believed to be or sending in large numbers of troops we’ll have to move quietly and secretly.
Send in small teams of covert operators who can easily blend into the local population. These would be men who can pass as Muslims and earn the respect of the local leaders. These Operators would have lots of cash and dispense it liberally, they would win over the tribal leaders by earning their respect and bribing them. Such tactics probably wouldn’t work on hardcore Taliban and Al Qaeda members but they would work on poor tribesmen trying to scratch out a living. It might take years to win over the tribal people of Pakistan but I imagine it can be done and we can get Bin Laden in the end.
The US has a long history of such covert warfare, especially in the Cold War where our covert operators outwitted and defeated Communism in places as diverse as Greece and El Salvador. Yet we have been reluctant to resort to such covert methods in the present conflict even though they are the perfect strategy for victory.
There are two reasons for this, first the massive military establishment has to justify its existence and the massive amounts of tax money it costs us. The cheap simple war in Afghanistan scared the generals and admirals in the Pentagon to death for it proved that much if not most of their war machine was obsolete. To this equation we can add all the people who profit from military spending such as defense contractors, politicians and lobbyists they want the gravy train to keep rolling. Similar concerns are at play in other countries such as Israel and Pakistan, Israeli and Pakistani generals also have to justify their defense spending.
Then there are the politicians who dislike covert warfare because there is no publicity and glory in them. There is no possibility of a photo opportunity on an aircraft carrier or a ceremony handing out medals to strapping young soldiers at the White House.
When covert operations succeed the public doesn’t hear about them and there is no opportunity for publicity. When covert operations go wrong political leaders take the heat especially from self righteous moralists. Every president wants to be FDR leading the troops to victory in World War II, no President wants to be Richard Nixon taking the fall.
With our leaders refusal to wage the kind of sensible covert war the present situation calls for, it is no wonder we haven’t caught Bin Laden.
posted by great one at 5:58 PM
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