William S. Lind on Iran

There is nothing more pathetic than a prophet who fails to heed his own predictions. That prophet is Col. William S. Lind USMC retired (Marines for us civilians) who has done the world a service of incredible value by warning us of the horrors of Fourth Generational Warfare which American service people are now facing everyday on the streets of Iraq.
Lind is now warning the American public through the American Conservative that the greatest danger American troops face in Iraq is the Iranian Army. Lind has spun a fantasy that the Iranian Army with its 1950s weaponry could somehow take US forces by surprise and overwhelm and defeat them. He says this is possible because Shiite militiamen in Iraq would cut our supply lines. With all respect to Col. Lind, I’m not at all afraid of this scenario, my guess is the likelihood of Iran defeating US forces in Iraq is about as great as that of space aliens descending from the sky and aiding the Iranians in our defeat which is about the only way I figure Iran could defeat the USA.
Yes the Iranians could launch a surprise attack upon the US and maybe take a few of our boys by surprise. But the majority of our troops would strike back and strike back hard, their weapons and training are still superior and so is the airpower. Lind’s only answer to air power is that well the Germans succeeded during the first part of the Battle of the Bulge during World War II because cloud cover grounded US and British planes. Note to Col. Lind, when the cloud cover lifted back in 1944 and American and British planes took off again the Germans lost.
My guess is that the Iranian Army would be slaughtered in an attack on American forces or more likely the Iranian soldiers will quietly walk up to the first American they see and calmly lay down their guns the one or two Revolutionary Guards in the area will run off out of fear , the Iranians could take a few Americans by surprise but once Americans figured out what was going on that would be the end of that. Lind claims the commanders of Shiite militias in Iraq are loyal to Iran. How loyal are these guys going to be with some GI sticking a pistol in their ear? The militia commanders in Iraq are shrewd realistic politicians they’ll go with the winning side, and sell out Iran to save their sorry hides. The average Iraqi Shiite well, he’ll have a headache or couldn’t find his gun until the battle was over then he’ll show up to back the winning side. My guess is the Iraqi comparing the Iranian draftee with his forty year old AK-47 asking where the Americans are so he can surrender in time for chow to the American regular with the latest in high tech weaponry and eager for a fight will start singing America the Beautiful.
The Iranian Army today is not Das Wehrmacht of 1940, it’s the Italian Army of 1940, a bunch of draftees looking for the first enemy to surrender to. The loud mouthed leader who will run away the minute his troops loose on the battlefield. Just like Mussolini did and probably be lynched by his own soldiers just as Mussolini was.
Even if Iran were to do the impossible that is somehow defeat and capture the US Army in Iraq. It would still loose, the US still has overwhelming air power and nuclear weapons. The US President not wanting to see a single GI harmed will call the Presidential Palace in Tehran and say, “the Trident class Submarine USS something or other has just locked on to Tehran. Gee wouldn’t it be unfortunate if there was a malfunction and a missile accidentally launched, I’m on the phone with the Captain of that ship his orders are to push the button if he doesn’t hear your unconditional surrender within the next minute.” Think this is a fantasy, well how would George W. or Hillary react if given the choice.
Victorious Iranian soldiers in the field gathered for the surrender ceremony would be confused to see their general quietly walk out of his headquarters and hand his pistol to the supposedly surrendering American commander. Then pull out a bullhorn and say, “men if you want your families to live turn all of your weapons over to the Americans now.” The one or two Revolutionary Guard officers who objected to the surrender, well, there was this American sniper who didn’t surrender and he was right over there. Too bad the only guy he shot was the RG commander before we got you him you all saw the sniper didn’t you. Nobody saw me pull out my pistol and blow the SOB away.”
Lind is wrong and right, there is a danger in a US war with Iran. The danger is that we’ll win and win easily and find ourselves responsible for Iran like we’re responsible for Iraq right now. The danger is that Americans having easily defeated Iran’s sorry excuse for a military will try to occupy the country and find ourselves fighting the Revolutionary Guard in the streets of Tehran. On the battlefield, the Revolutionary Guard is useless as a fighting force, but as a non government fighting force it would be superb. The big brave Revolutionary Guardsman would surrender to the Americans get disarmed and sent home, then dig his second gun out from under the bed and start the real war when the American occupiers arrived.
If the most powerful military on Earth can’t cope with the confusion of Fourth Generational Warfare how can a third rate power like Iran?
As a brilliant thinker, Bill Lind understands 4G Warfare perfectly but as a traditional military officer and a patriot he rejects it. Unfortunately his idiotic rejection of his insightful thesis only makes more Fourth Generational Warfare likely. Traditional warfare of the kind Lind fears is not the threat the threat is more Fourth Generational warfare and a repeat of the Iraq debacle in Iran.