Mideast Crisis: The Beginning of the End of the Nation State?

What is happening in the Middle East today is simple and very frightening: national governments are no longer in control of the situation in that troubled region.
The governments of the Middle East whether they be military dictatorships, absolute monarchies or democracies have opted for peace and stability. Yet the region is on the verge of all out war because two terrorist organizations, Hezobllah and Hamas, want war and are willing to do whatever it takes to start one.
The situation in the Middle East is a perfect example of Fourth Generational Warfare, that is war waged by entities other than the traditional nation state. Hezbollah and Hamas are not nation states or political parties instead they are religious organizations dedicated to waging war on Israel, something more akin to the Medieval orders of crusading knights than modern political movements. These organizations have limited power but they are able to dominate the political situation in Israel and Lebanon because they have the ability to wage war.
Organizations like Hamas, Hezbollah, the Iraqi insurgents and Al Qaeda are now the dominant political force in the Islamic Middle East because they can do what Arab governments haven’t been able to do. They can wage war upon the Western nations and Israel and often succeed where Arab governments have failed. The Iraqi insurgents for example have killed more American soldiers than Saddam Hussein’s sorry excuse for an army, while Hezbollah fighters have been able to defeat Israeli soldiers on the battlefield.
Modern technology and economics make it easier than ever for non state actors to wage war. Groups like Hezbollah and Hamas can fund their activities through overseas banking and use modern communications to spread propaganda on a level once reserved only for the nation state. Computers give these groups the ability to create effective and sophisticated organizations in a short period of time. Modern weapons technology such as smart bombs and rockets lends itself to the kind of warfare favored by such groups.
The paradox of Fourth Generational Warfare is that it becomes harder and harder for nation states to wage war even as it becomes easier for non state entities to do battle. The United States has discovered this unpleasant reality in Iraq, despite their vast power and sophisticated technology American soldiers find themselves unable to control the country. American troops have to restrain their actions because the international media is watching them, while insurgents can do whatever they want.
Israel has learned this terrible lesson too, although it has the most powerful army in the Middle East, Israeli citizens are still cowering in bomb shelters. Israel finds its course of action in Lebanon limited by international criticism and the sheer clumsiness of its traditional military forces.
The situation in the Middle East casts serious doubt on the future of the traditional nation state. The nation state came into being in the 17th and 18th Centuries because it was the most effective entity for waging war. Nation states had a monopoly upon military force because they were the only entities capable of raising and maintaining effective fighting forces.
Before the nation state war was waged by all manner of groups and individuals, companies of mercenaries, orders of Crusading Knights, city states, nobles, large families, religious cults, corporations and criminal groups to name just a few. That maybe the situation we are going back to with a wide variety of entities waging all manner of warfare.
Already many people in the Middle East have rejected traditional nation states and given their allegiance to groups like Hezbollah. Hezbollah provides a military force, law enforcement, education and social services in South Lebanon in other words it has usurped many of the functions of the state. This undermines the whole system of international law and diplomacy which exists to limit
the power and influence of individual nation states. The idea behind traditional diplomacy and international law is agreements based on a balance of power would make war impossible. Non state groups which are not bound by international law or restrained by diplomacy are free to act in ways which nations are not. Hezbollah can take Israeli soldiers prisoner and Iraqi insurgents can behead their enemies for the television camera while American soldiers are imprisoned for taking pictures of naked prisoners.
This puts the non state players in the driver’s seat they can choose the battlefield and determine the rules of the conflict. All the nation state can do is react by waging traditional warfare that is large scale military offensives and attacks. Traditional military tactics designed to disable an enemy nation’s military capabilities are often ineffective against non state enemies, they can simply run away and regroup.
So what will be the outcome of these developments? My guess is that we are witnessing the opening battle of a war that will change everything in the Middle East and other regions of the globe. When the dust clears, many traditional nations, institutions and communities will no longer exist. My guess is that this conflict will spread into Europe and possibly the United States. The United States has already been dragged in and I imagine that China and India will in the near future.
Nation states will have to adapt to this situation if they are to survive. In particular nation states will have to find new means of waging war and destroying their enemies. This may involve new weapons and tactics and new kinds of fighting forces that may supplant traditional military services. Already the United States is making extensive use of military contractors - in other words mercenaries - in Iraq.
If nation states can’t cope then new entities will arise to take their place, this could mean private corporations which would raise, maintain and deploy military forces for profit. Drone aircraft and military robotics could give entrepreneurs the ability to quickly create and deploy powerful fighting units. Or political or religious organizations dedicated to waging war on some enemy could takeover war fighting roles from the nation state, Hezbollah is a perfect example of such an organization.
No matter what else happens the current bloodshed in the Middle East looks like the beginning of the end for the nation state.