The Long Emergency: Book Commentary
By Daniel G. Jennings
The following is a book commentary not a book review, “The Long Emergency”* by James Howard Kunstler, is an excellent book that raises important issues that every thinking person should read. Instead of reviewing my friend Jim’s well written and intelligent if a little hysterical book I’ll analyze some of the arguments he raises.
Kunstler’s main argument is that modern civilization is about to collapse largely because of depletion of important energy resources, namely oil and natural gas (and the natural gas shortage maybe a bigger crisis than oil). He mentions a few other possible causes including disease and global warming. Some equally destructive phenomena such as Cultural Marxism and the growing Muslim/non-Muslim conflict in Europe are not mentioned.
Our present day society is impossible without abundant supplies of cheap oil and natural gas that’s a fact Kunstler wisely points out. Kunstler also correctly notes that worldwide production of oil and natural gas has hit it’s peak and will obviously decline. He also rightly notes that we don’t have any sort of alternative fuel waiting in the wings that can do for us what oil does. Hydrogen, solar, wind, nuclear, hydroelectric hold interesting possibilities but they have their limitations and as Kunstler points out require large amounts of cheap oil to produce.
Since oil powers the automobile which is the primary means of American travel which will lead to the collapse of our society. Most American communities are built around the car and most people can’t get around them without one.
Kunstler believes that the energy shortage will return us to a more primitive age. Horses will replace tractors on the farm, global capitalism will collapse large corporations will go under, world trade will cease, and many large cities will become uninhabitable. Kunstler goes even farther predicting the collapse of the United States and the return of feudalism in which many Americans will be peasants working the land.
Now I believe that this is a worst case scenario an example of the catastrophe that could happen if we do nothing. Personally, I don’t believe the Long Emergency is a likely outcome of the end of cheap oil which will happen sooner than we want. This nightmare scenario sounds a great deal like the doom saying of my youth, remember “The Mad Max Movies,” “The Day After”etc. Kunstler’s post oil America sounds a great deal like the post apocalyptic Australia Mad Max roams in his souped up V-8 (at least in the first two movies, by the third film he’s herding camels across the Outback).
A much more likely outcome is a contracted America where Americans drive a lot less, fly a lot less, live in smaller homes and enjoy a lot less military power and influence in the world. Americans thirty years from now won’t be hoeing potatoes or using mules to plow fields, more likely they’ll be living like present day Japanese.
That is in crowded, contracted, energy efficient cities highly reliant upon mass transportation and electricity. Instead of McMansions, Americans will be living in apartments or row houses within walking distance of train stations. Traditional suburbia having been abandoned or bulldozed to make way for New Urbanism. Instead of driving a large percentage of the population will be taking the train or the bus to work. Instead of driving to Wal-Mart to shop they’ll call or e-mail Wal-Mart or whatever and some sort of delivery truck will bring the merchandise to them. In such a society a large percentage of the population will be wrapped up in electronic entertainments such as video games and movies.
The electricity the new America runs on will be generated most likely by nuclear fission. Although new technology such as solar energy beamed down from orbiting satellites or fusion might be replacing fission by then. Since cities will be more compact homes and businesses are likely to be heated by some sort of central municipal heating system using steam or water heated at a central plant a plant that could run on coal or biomass or oil or nuclear. Such systems are already widely in use in Russia and Northern Europe.
Transportation in the future will be electric powered trains or perhaps magnetic levitation trains many of which will run at incredibly high speeds. Since such rail systems are far more efficient than trucking and planes, transportation will be cheaper and more efficient than ever before. Wal-Mart’s warehouse on wheels is likely to become the warehouse on rails. Cars will still be around but there are likely to be less of them but they will still likely run on gas and diesel but are likely to be hybrids or use fuel cells. In town people will rely on buses, taxi cabs, light rail and subways as well as bicycles and scooters of all sorts.
The energy crisis is likely to make agriculture more industrialized than ever before. Agribusiness will be able to afford to switch to energy sources, the family farm won’t. Electric rail will make transportation more efficient so the 2,500 mile salad will be cheaper and more plentiful than ever before. What differences robotics and genetic engineering in future agriculture will make we don’t know. Although walking robots (they actually exist in Japan right now) and genetic engineering may make the small scale agriculture Kunstler dreams of workable.
Around the world, America is likely to be China’s junior partner in the occupation and liquidation of Africa and the Middle East. Much as Britain became America’s junior partner by mid 20th Century.
There is an element of bucolic fantasy, in “The Long Emergency” Kunstler seems to want to return to a simpler time. An era of small towns, localized agriculture and real communities. This seems like wishful thinking, such traditional American communities were rife with racism, religious intolerance, economic exploitation, violence and corruption among other things.
Although in his book, Kunstler points out such an era is likely to be one of religious fanaticism, neofeudal exploitation, racism and fragmentation of society. He largely ignores other aspects such as banditry, warlordism, which would also manifest themselves. One probable outcome of such a class would be the rise to power of some of feudal warrior elite, the people with the guns (probably gang members) would seize control and force the rest of us do all the work for them. That’s what happened in Europe during the dark ages.
Despite it’s problems “The Long Emergency” is an excellent warning of the crises we face if we do nothing. It’s well worth a read and a lot of thought and conversation from Americans and people around the world.

* “The Long Emergency: Surviving the Catastrophes of the 21st Century” by James Howard Kunstler, New York, Atlantic Monthly Press 2005.