Oil Shortages
By Daniel G. Jennings
I’m heartened to see that the national media is waking up to the looming oil shortage but distressed to no real talk of the best alternative we have to oil based transportation, electric powered rail, in the media.
In a Rolling Stone piece about his new book, my good friend James Kunstler does write about the importance of rail. Unfortunately he misses an important point (at least in the article the book isn’t out yet), trains can easily be electrified even over long distances. The electricity the trains run on can be from virtually any source: hydro, coal, natural gas, nuclear even solar power.
This simple and very obvious fact is what could save our great nation from being reduced to the level of Brazil or India by a few years of oil shortages. We could easily electrify and expand all of our major railroad lines and build new ones. Virtually every other country in the world is doing this including Russia which has electrified the Trans Siberian railroad from Vladivostok to St. Petersburg. We could also build electric powered rail systems (streetcars, light rail, subways, monorail) in all of our major cities and create electrified commuter and regional rail service and high speed rail to haul passengers, freight and mail as an alternative to air travel. Our top competitor China is doing all of these things, unfortunately we are not.
Nor do our politicians seem to care, neither major presidential candidate even mentioned the R word last year. It wouldn’t be hard to get rail electrification going all we would need to do is change federal law so that the Department of Transportation could distribute funds directly to private railroads and state and local agencies that build rail lines. That’s how Uncle Sam currently funds highways, airports and mass transit in our cities and it works as our massive highway and airport networks and the growing number of transit systems in our cities demonstrates.
This is why it is so disheartening to see the latest syndicated column from New York Times wise Thomas Friedman.* Friedman grasps the basic problem the oil supply is shrinking at a time when demand is increasing. There is less gas available for Americans because more Chinese, Indians and Russians can afford cars and drive. Meanwhile the world’s supply is getting smaller by the day because of increased demand and no new oil sources have been found.
Friedman grasps the problem unfortunately he ignores or doesn’t see real answers. His solution is increased fuel efficiency new hybrid cars that combine electric and gasoline engines and get 40 to 50 miles per gallon. Increased fuel efficiency is a great idea but it’s only a stop gap solution denying the inevitable. The oil will still run out in a generation or so, what will happen. In other words pass the problem on to the next generation.
Mr. Friedman’s proposed solution will also hurt the poor and working class. He wants taxes to keep gasoline prices over $4 a gallon. No big deal to a highly paid New York writer who doesn’t have to drive to work everyday but something that would really hurt the working poor. With no alternative many poor people would be forced to choose between food or gas for the car to get to work a terrible choice. Nor would poor people automatically be able to run out and buy the fancy and expensive new hybrid car. They would still be driving around in high gas mileage clunkers paying the higher fuel prices. Meanwhile the increased gas tax money probably would be used to build more freeways making the problem worse.
Friedman also proposes a hydrocarbon tax designed to get utilities to move from fossil fuels to wind and solar power. Since wind and solar power are more expensive and unproven this would hurt the poor by causing raises in utility rates. Something already happening in my home state of Colorado where green do gooders got a ballot measure requiring utility companies to use solar and wind power passed.
Tommy of the Times would also have President Bush emulate Jimmy Carter he would like to President Bush lead by example by trading his limo for an armor plated Ford Escape. This would be a meaningless gesture the only people who would benefit from it would be Jay Leno and Dave Letterman who’d get lots of good joke material. The leadership by example was the disastrous energy policy of Jimmy Carter, he demanded Americans use less fuel and put solar panels on the White House roof to demonstrate his commitment to the cause. The solar panels were a hollow and meaningless publicity stunt quietly hauled down by Ronald Reagan. Friedman’s leadership by example would turn Bush into a bigger joke than Jimmy Carter.
What we really need is bold and energetic vision and action modeled after the action of another Republican President, Dwight D. Eisenhower. Ike changed the nation with a massive public works program the Interstate highway system. President Bush should announce a massive federal effort to fund the electrification and expanding of our existing railroads and the creation of high speed rail lines. This would be expensive but it would be popular, it would create lots of jobs, make our transportation system and economy more efficient and it could be paid for by reallocating existing funds we spend on airports and highways without imposing new taxes that hurt working people.
It’s heartening to see America’s opinion leaders grasping the oil shortage crisis, unfortunately it’s sad to see their failure to offer real solutions. That’s why I’m so glad to see Jim Kunstler’s doomsday scenario out there, yes it’s frightening the collapse of our country into a third world economy, but it’s what could happen if we don’t move away from oil or pretend we can solve the problem by driving hybrids. There is a good alternative out there but we’re not even talking about it.
The question is not if but when Americans will face up to this crisis. For that we should look to a great Englishman of American descent for answers: Winston Churchill. Churchill said, Americans will do the right thing after they have exhausted every other possibility. That’s what our politicians and pundits appear to be doing.
* “Geo-Greening by example,” Thomas L. Friedman, Denver Post March 29, 2005.
“The Long Emergency” James Howard Kunstler Posted on Rolling Stone Website March 24, 2005.
